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Thank you for providing such a detailed investigation, particularly the event sequence, RDP configuration, mstscax.dll comparison, and the before-and-after testing with KB5127936.
I appreciate the time you have taken to isolate the behavior, and the rollback test is especially helpful in narrowing down where the issue occurs.
Based on the behavior you described, the failure appears to occur very early in the RDP connection and security-negotiation sequence, before the connection reaches the point where the remote RDP host's security capabilities are evaluated.
With negotiate security layer:i:1, RDP uses negotiation to determine a security protocol supported by both the client and server. Microsoft documents this negotiation-based sequence as one in which the client advertises the security packages it supports and the server selects the package to use.
The important difference in your traces is that, with KB5127936 installed, the connection reaches Event 1024 for 127.0.0.1 but disconnects before Event 1028 occurs. After KB5127936 is removed, the expected sequence continues through Event 1028 and the RDP session connects successfully.
Considering that:
- the Barracuda SSL VPN tunnel itself remains established,
- the failure occurs when MSTSC connects through the
local 127.0.0.1:<port> tunnel, - RDP negotiation does not progress to Event 1028 with KB5127936 installed,
- uninstalling KB5127936 immediately restores the connection, and
- the reported
mstscax.dllversion is unchanged,
Your testing provides strong evidence of an update-dependent compatibility issue in the Windows client-side RDP/network/security path used with the Barracuda local tunnel.
However, I would be cautious about concluding that this is specifically a TLS fallback, loopback, or mstscax.dll regression. The available events show where the connection stops, but they do not provide enough information to identify the underlying Windows component responsible for the failure.
At this time, the published documentation for KB5127936 does not document this particular Barracuda SSL VPN/local-loopback RDP scenario as a known issue. Therefore, based on the information currently available, I cannot confirm that this is an officially recognized Windows regression.
Since KB5127936 is a Preview update and you have already confirmed that removing it restores the connection, I recommend remaining on the previous working Windows build and not reinstalling KB5127936 on the affected systems for now.
I would not recommend weakening or changing the RDP security configuration as a workaround, particularly because Microsoft recommends using Network Level Authentication where the environment supports it.
When the next cumulative Windows 11 update that supersedes KB5127936 becomes available, test it first on one non-production device using the same Barracuda 127.0.0.1:<port> tunnel.
I suggest keeping the validation as close as possible to your existing test:
Barracuda tunnel → MSTSC to 127.0.0.1 → compare the TerminalServices RDP client events
If the connection progresses through Event 1028 again and the RDP session succeeds, that would indicate that the compatibility issue is no longer present on the newer Windows servicing level.
If the same behavior remains reproducible on the latest cumulative update, further investigation would require deeper diagnostic traces and product-level analysis.
This is also where I would like to be transparent about the limitation of Microsoft Q&A. Microsoft Q&A can help analyze the documented behavior, review the evidence, and suggest troubleshooting based on publicly available Microsoft documentation. However, the forum does not provide the product-level diagnostic access required to determine exactly which Windows component changed in KB5127936 or to confirm an undocumented Windows defect.
Because your scenario shows a reproducible difference between Windows builds while also involving a third-party Barracuda VPN tunnel, a definitive root-cause determination would need to be investigated through an official Microsoft support case, with Barracuda support involved if necessary. Your update → rollback → retest results, together with the TerminalServices event sequence you have already collected, would be valuable evidence for that investigation.
I understand that this may not provide the definitive confirmation you were hoping for, especially when you are planning a production deployment. However, I would rather be transparent about what the available evidence supports and what cannot yet be confirmed than present an assumption as an established Microsoft product issue.
I hope this helps clarify the likely scope of the problem and gives you a safe path forward while waiting for the next servicing update.
References: October 28, 2026— KB5127936 (OS Builds 26300.9818 and 26200.9818) Preview | Microsoft Support
[MS-RDPBCGR]: Security-Enhanced Connection Sequence | Microsoft Learn
Credential Security Support Provider - Win32 apps | Microsoft Learn
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